Forget BigBear.ai: This Mission-Critical AI Platform Is the Real MVP. Though BigBear.ai trades at a seemingly attractive valuation, its financial performance makes it a questionable investment.
Palantir is going from strength to strength thanks to the rapid adoption of its AI solutions by commercial customers.
## The Commercial Segment Has Bolstered Palantir’s Growth
Palantir’s pivot to seek more of its growth among corporate customers is reaping rich rewards. In the third quarter of 2025, its commercial revenue spiked by 73% year over year to $548 million. Its government revenue rose by 55%.
The 50 new commercial customers that Palantir added during the quarter are likely to drive stronger growth for the company. That’s because a new customer that uses AIP to integrate generative AI solutions into its operations usually goes on to expand its adoption of the platform.
That’s not surprising considering the productivity gains that AIP is known to deliver. It is worth noting that Palantir has been ranked as the top vendor of AI software platforms by third-party market researchers.
BigBear.ai, however, has been unable to tap the commercial market so far, and that’s turning out to be a major headwind for the company.
## BigBear.ai’s Stock Is Cheaper than Palantir’s, But for Good Reason
BigBear.ai stock fell hard in August after the company missed Wall Street’s expectations for the second quarter and lowered its full-year guidance. With more than a month before it reveals its Q4 results, management’s guidance for 2025 is for revenue in the range of $100 million to $110 million, down from $140 million previously.
An overreliance on government contracts is turning out to be a headwind for BigBear.ai. That’s not surprising, given the current macroeconomic environment, where spending on military equipment and supplies is declining. The company’s dependence on government contracts has made it vulnerable to fluctuations in spending by these agencies.
