The NFL playoffs are heating up, and the divisional round is about to kick off. Our team of experts has analyzed the best bets, player props, and more to help you make informed decisions. From the Bills vs. Broncos matchup to the Patriots vs. Texans game, we’ve got you covered. Here’s a closer look at our top picks and predictions.
## Expert NFL Picks for Divisional Round Games
The NFL playoffs continue this weekend, and our USA TODAY Sports staff is back at the table, breaking down their best NFL bets and predictions. The guys delivered winning picks down the stretch of the regular season and are looking to get back on track after a 2-3 record from the wild-card round.
### Broncos RB RJ Harvey Anytime TD Scorer vs. Bills
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: These teams meet again a year after Buffalo dominated Denver 31-7 in the wild-card round. How things have changed. Buffalo’s defense is one of the worst in the league against the run. That unit ranks 30th in the league in EPA per rush compared to sixth in EPA per pass allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats. If Denver wants a measure of revenge for what happened in the playoffs last year, the ground game is key. Jacksonville managed more than seven yards per carry on non-quarterback runs in the wild-card round and Denver’s offensive line is much better than the Jaguars’ unit. Harvey was a touchdown machine in the regular season with a team-high 12 scores. He’ll be heavily involved again and should find the end zone against Buffalo.
### Patriots vs. Texans Under 40.5 Total Points
Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: These teams gave up a combined nine points in their wild-card round games. Expect another strong performance from each defense. The Texans have the NFL’s No. 1-ranked defense EPA per play, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. The team is adept at getting pressure rushing four and should be able to wreak havoc against the Patriots’ rookie, left-side duo of Will Campbell and Jared Wilson with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. Meanwhile, the Patriots are facing a Texans team without its No. 1 receiver, Nico Collins, who is dealing with a concussion. C.J. Stroud looked shaky against the Steelers, so this figures to be a low-scoring game.
### Bears RB D’Andre Swift Anytime TD Scorer vs. Rams
Jack McKessy, NFL writer: According to the National Weather Service, the high temperature in Chicago on Sunday will be 19 degrees Fahrenheit. With the wind coming off of Lake Michigan and into Soldier Field, it will be even colder than that. As a result, the Bears’ offensive game plan should be to exploit that cold-weather advantage against a team that plays its home games both indoors and in Los Angeles. That means pounding the rock with its running backs, forcing the Rams to play physically and make tackles through the cold. D’Andre Swift was one of the beneficiaries of the cold weather in Chicago last week and scored a touchdown against the Packers in the wild-card round. Expect him to reach the end zone one way or another – in the air or on the ground – as the Bears play another cold-weather home playoff game.
### Bills TE Dalton Kincaid Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: The Buffalo Bills are running out of bodies. Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis joined the growing list of receivers on injured reserve after the wild-card round, leaving minimal healthy pass-catchers for Josh Allen to throw to. And, unless he’s throwing the ball to himself, it will have to go to someone. That’s where Kincaid comes in. An already beaten-up receiver room is certainly in for a long day against the likes of Pat Surtain in the Denver secondary, but Kincaid doesn’t figure to have that problem. The Broncos have the sixth-highest blitz rate in the league and Kincaid is among the leaders in yards per routes run against the blitz, per PFF. The third-year tight end isn’t always the most efficient or consistent player, but he does have Allen’s trust. He will only need about three catches to beat this line, something we should expect as Khalil Shakir and Brandin Cooks tangle with the Denver secondary.
### Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 Receptions
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: We’re 1-0 withour postseason bets fading the 49ers defense and we’re going to do it again this weekend. Smith-Njigba led the league in receiving yards and finished fourth in receptions in 2025. In two games against the 49ers this season, he finished with nine receptions at home in Week 1 and 6 receptions on the road in Week 18. San Fran allowed the seventh-most receptions to opposing receivers during the season. JSN finished with at least seven catches in 12 of 17 games this season, and two of the misses came in blowouts where he sat the majority of the second half. Take away the blowouts and he exceeded this line at an 80% rate in 2025. The 49ers struggle to generate pressure, as evidenced by their performance against the Eagles last week, when they pressured Jalen Hurts on only 6 of 37 dropbacks. Sam Darnold’s completion percentage jumps to 72.6% when not under pressure, compared to just 55.5% when pressured. Smith-Njigba will want to make a statement in his first career playoff game. Bank on the 23-year-old to produce today.
